Opinion
- Editorial
Daniel Erikson:
Is Chavez Cuba's kingmaker?
Just days before Fidel Castro's ailing health grabbed
world headlines, the Cuban leader was Venezuelan
President Hugo Chavez's surprise guest at a South
American summit in Argentina. The two leaders travelled
to the boyhood home of Ernesto ``Che'' Guevara,
the revolutionary icon. Chavez appeared moved by
the visit. ``For me,'' he said, ``it is truly an
honour to be here, walking through history.'' But
Chavez has already joined Che where it counts most
- on billboards in Havana, where the Cuban government
lauds its heroes.
Chavez
is indeed a hero in Cuba, especially to its longtime
leader. Over the last seven years, he has become
Castro's key economic benefactor and political partner.
That relationship has stirred concern among US policymakers
that Chavez might meddle in the post-Castro transition.
There's
no question that he has sufficient leverage in Cuba
to potentially influence the choice of the island's
next leader - and his blessing will certainly be
crucial to the next Cuban government's success or
failure.
The
sources of Chavez's potential leverage in Cuba's
transition are multiple. The most important is the
``oil for services'' pact that he and Castro signed
in October 2000 and that continues to expand.
Cuba
receives more than 90,000 barrels of Venezuela crude
a day at favourable rates of financing in exchange
for deploying an estimated 20,000 doctors in Venezuela.
Although the presence of Cuban doctors has deepened
Chavez's support among his country's poor, the arrangement
has yielded extraordinary benefits for Castro as
well. Over the last six years, oil prices have more
than tripled, from US$20 to about US$76 a barrel.
Not only has Cuba avoided oil sticker shock, it
has received a modest windfall. In 2005, bilateral
trade between the two countries reached US$2.5 billion,
including US$1.8 billion in Venezuelan oil sales
to Cuba on deferred financing plans - and nonpayment
by Cuba is the norm.
Cuba
and Venezuela's deep security and intelligence cooperation
in recent years also contributes to Chavez's influence
in Cuba. Chavez has embraced Cuban military doctrine,
which includes the development of a two-million-member
Venezuelan reservist force to counter the perceived
threat of US aggression. New laws give Cuban officials
wide latitude to conduct security activities in
Venezuela, and Venezuelan military personnel have
cultivated strong relationships with their Cuban
counterparts. In the future, the spectre of Venezuelan
military intervention in Cuba - even if farfetched
- further diminishes the already-negligible enthusiasm
U.S. military officials have for a Cuban adventure.
Aside
from billboards, the Cuban state media covers Chavez
as if he were a member of Castro's Cabinet. Cuban
and Venezuelan flags often appear together at official
ceremonies on the island, and the thousands of Venezuelans
visiting Cuba for medical treatment or ideological
training underscore the bond between the two leaders.
Finally, in addition to more than one-third of Cuba's
doctors, Venezuela is host to thousands of Cuban
educators, sports trainers and security personnel.
These individuals make up a significant percentage
of the well-trained human capital that represents
the crown jewel of Cuba's socialist revolution.
When Castro dies, Chavez will have to decide how
to deal with these Cubans in Venezuela. If he sends
them home, there may be no jobs for them, which
could be socially destabilising.
Washington
has few tools to counter Chavez in Cuba. In a recent
report on the island, the Bush administration concluded
that ``the current regime in Havana is working with
like-minded governments, particularly Venezuela,
to build a network of political and financial support
designed to forestall any external pressure to change.''
After Castro's surgery was made public, the administration
quickly ruled out any dialogue with the new Cuban
government, instead continuing the sanctions policy
that has left Washington without any effective leverage
in Cuban affairs.
Still,
Washington's anxiety about Venezuela's influence
in a post-Castro Cuba illustrates how completely
Chavez occupies centre stage in US policy toward
Latin America. Over the last several years, the
US has elevated Chavez's stature from that of a
strictly Venezuelan political phenomenon to one
of a continental menace whose manoeuvrings are responsible
- correctly or not - for every development that
goes against Washington's interests. He, not Castro,
is the presumed hemispheric bogeyman behind Latin
America's burgeoning left-wing movements.
Castro's
template for Latin American leadership has captivated
the Venezuelan leader since his earliest days in
power. Chavez has learned from Castro how to build
a virtually indestructible power base at home while
winning friends and admirers around the world.
Most
important, Castro has demonstrated that crossing
swords with the United States can be a good career
move. If the US detects his hand in the selection
of Cuba's next leader, Chavez may be betting that
roiling the US will benefit him as well.
-Daniel Erikson is senior associate for US policy
at the Inter-American Dialogue.
-Los Angeles Times-Washington Post
Trinidad
Express
Saturday, August 19th 2006
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© 2006 The
Trinidad Express.
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