Opinion
- Editorial
Anna-Lisa
Paul : Mark dismisses
Manning's employment proclamation
Opposition Senator Wade Mark has scoffed at Prime
Minister Patrick Manning's announcement that unemployment
rates are at an all-time low.
Instead, he is insisting that the
ruling political party has "cleverly manipulated
several key statistical indices or measures vital
to national development in its attempt to mask its
image of monumental under-performance in our nation".
Dismissing Manning's proclamation
that there was a real possibility of reaching full
employment in a relatively short period of time,
as the current unemployment rate is 5.9 per cent,
Mark said "Nothing could be further from the
truth".
He claimed that in an attempt to
disguise the real economy, "key measurement
economic indicators were unilaterally altered to
favour government policy and political agenda at
the beginning of 2003".
He added that over the past three
years, the ruling PNM regime "without any meaningful
dialogue with the national community proceeded to
unilaterally adjust and fundamentally alter at least
two critical economical measurement indicators vital
to the country's long-term development".
Referring to these developments
as "a masterful job in statistical conmanship
by the Manning administration", Mark explained
that in 2003, the government revised and rebased
the country's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from
its previous base of 1985 to a new base year of
2000.
This came about as a result of a
change in the structure of the economy brought about
by the development of the natural gas sector from
the growing petrochemical sector, as well as a resurgence
in the banking and telecommunications sector.
This revision, Mark claims, would
explain the massive increase in the country's GDP
from $56.3 billion in 2002, to $114.5 billion (provisional)
at the end of 2006.
Mark said Manning's boast of "doubling"
the economy over the past five years as a result
of its "attack and expansionist mode"
had nothing to do with prudent management of the
economy, but more with a "statistical revision
of the country's GDP as well as favourable commodity
prices for our main export in the energy sector".
Revealing the other economic indicator
which was unilaterally implemented without national
discussion or consultation, Mark said it was the
introduction of a new measurement method for determining
the unemployment rate.
Prior to 2003 the unemployed, as
measured in the Continuous Sample Survey of Population
(CSSP), included all persons who were looking for
work during a three month reference period, preceding
the enumeration survey, and who at the time did
not have a job but wanted to work and was actively
looking for work.
The justification for the three
month period had to do with job scarcity and the
absence of a system of employment registration.
It was the view of the Central Statistical
Office that a week was too short a reference period
as regards looking for work.
However, this definition of unemployed
was unilaterally discontinued without any explanation,
and replaced by a period of one week in 2003.
In places like India, a six-month
period is used, while in the US, a one-month reference
period is employed. Some countries even use a one-year
period.
According to Mark, the government
has arbitrarily employed a one-week period, and
has refused to publish the methodology used.
Mark
is of the firm view that had the three month reference
period been used, rough estimates would indicate
that the unemployment rate was between 10 and 15
per cent, while under-employment would hover around
25 - 30 per cent.
Anna-Lisa Paul
is one of Trinidad's Express
journalists. Petroleumworld not necessarily share
these views.
Editor's
Note: This article was first publish in Trinidad
Express on,
Sunday,
November 26th 2006.
Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest
of our readers.
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Petroleumworld
11/26/06
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