Opinion
- Editorial
Selwyn
Ryan:
The
smelter: Manning's tipping point?
The
outcome of the American Congressional elections
may have some relevance to contemporary politics
in Trinidad and Tobago. That election saw the Republicans,
who had been hyper-dominant in the American political
firmament at all levels, taking a "thumping"
that served to change the mood and the landscape
of American domestic and international politics
for sometime to come.
In
2000, George Bush narrowly "won" the office
of the Presidency, courtesy the Electoral College
and the Supreme Court. Bush however governed as
if he had won power by a landslide. His majority
was amplified considerably by the events of 9/11.
Following that event, Bush seized the reins of the
Presidency and bullied a frightened nation into
submission.
America
was at war and one either did things his way or
ran the risk of being suspected or accused of being
unpatriotic. All the separate branches of the Government
became aligned as they had not been for some years.
Congress became the "broken branch." The
Republican hegemony seemed permanent as the mood
of the country lurched to the right. Many Americans
feared that they had not only lost the security
which they enjoyed by reason of their geography,
but their civil liberties as well.
In
2004, Bush again won the Presidency, this time convincingly
so. A triumphal and imperial President boasted that
he had won a chunk of political capital and that
he was going to spend it.. He, Cheney, Rumsfeld,
Rice and the other "Vulcans" were riding
high and sought to reshape the world in general
and the Middle East in particular in their neo-conservative
image. America would not only be the world's super
policeman and enforcer but would also spearhead
a crusade to pacify and bring democracy and enlightenment
to the benighted masses of the Middle East. All
this was underpinned by America's concern for energy
and physical security .
Things
did not however turn out as expected, thanks in
part to the resistance put up by a gaggle of "nasty"
rogue leaders in Iran, North Korea, Venezuela, and
of course Iraq.
Until November 6, Bush was in denial. The more elusive
victory became in those theatres, the more stubborn
he, Cheney, and Rumsfeld became. Defeat in fact
seemed to stiffen their resolve.
They
boasted that they had a clear vision of what they
had to do, and knew that it was right. As Cheney
put it, "we are not running for office. We
are doing what we think is right". The American
people were told that they had to stay the course
until victory was won.
The
American people, or enough of them, however believed
otherwise, and switched their franchise to the Democrats
who notwithstanding pervasive gerrymandering, recaptured
control of both Houses of Congress and several state
houses after a lapse of some 12 years. Even while
admitting electoral defeat, Bush is still seeking
to persuade himself and others that all is not lost,
and that victory will eventually be won.
What
does this narrative have to do with Trinidad and
Tobago? One is tempted to make a comparison between
the leadership style of President Bush and that
of Prime Minister Manning. My considered view is
that Mr Manning means well, but that he is wrong
to dismiss or ignore the voices of the citizenry
on a matter such as an aluminium smelter which can
affect the fundamentals of their life. It is clear
that many feel very strongly about the matter, and
nothing has been said that persuades them that the
risks which they are being asked to take are worth
the candle. The smelter is neither good economics,
nor is it good politics in a society in which people
have the opportunity and the incentive to vote and
in other ways to make their views felt.
In
the case of the US, Mr Bush's stubborn insistence
that he "would stay the course" in Babylon
(Iraq) no matter what, proved his undoing. He was
punished. I have a feeling that the smelter would
prove to be the "tipping point" that could
lead to Mr Manning's undoing. Mr. Manning, like
Bush, believes that his Government knows what is
right and that everyone else is either dotish or
driven by emotion, politics or ethnic competition.
My instinct however tells me that history will adjudge
Mr. Manning to have been the one who was wrong.
Mr
Manning has since agreed to sponsor a symposium
on December 6 where the issues will be fully ventilated,
but he has however contrived to send a message that
the smelter train is coming down the track at full
speed and nothing will derail it. The general view
is that the symposium is intended to secure legitimacy
for a project that has already been baked into the
policy pie.
It
is not very clear just why the Prime Minister and
some of his policy advisers are so intent that smelter
must be built. One suspects that there is more in
the mortar than the pestle, and that it is not merely
the promise of jobs or economic sustainability that
is driving the project. My hunch is that there is
a geopolitical premise that has not been made articulate,
and that the South West peninsula is being seen
as space that is vital to American security and
energy concerns. Perhaps this will surface at the
symposium. In the meantime, I think it is reckless
to insist on building the smelter, whatever the
short or long term costs.
Selwyn Ryan
is one of Trinidad's Express Columnists.
Petroleumworld not necessarily share these views.
Editor's
Note: This article was first publish in Trinidad
Express on,
Sunday,
November 26th 2006.
Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest
of our readers.
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Petroleumworld
11/26/06
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