Opinion
- Editorial- Commentary
Rickey
Singh:
Politics
of natural gas audit
NOT just the people of Trinidad and Tobago but
all member states of Caricom would like to share
the optimism Prime Minister Manning is now desperately
seeking to generate - against the odds - about
this country's proven natural gas reserves.
The
problem is that when "government by announcements''
becomes a norm for an administration it is challenged
to find creative ways to close an embarrassingly
yawning gap between independently offered hard
data and official assurances.
This dilemma seems to have crept up on the citizens
of this most economically advanced Caricom state
which has been floating, for more than five years
now, on foreign exchange earnings from gas and
oil.
The problem has resulted from disclosure of an
audit done in 2006 by an American firm, Ryder Scott
of Houston, Texas, and submitted to the Ministry
of Energy last June.
The conclusion of the audit must have been the
last thing the Manning administration wanted to
know - moreso in an election year - that the country's
proven gas reserves could be exhausted in 2019,
a mere 12 years from now, based on current operations.
Had
it been a media report speculating on such a
doomsday prospect, the Government would have
been on the offensive, claiming "irresponsibility" and "mischievousness''.
An opposition claim of declining reserves in 12
years and with no firm knowledge on prospects from
some 17 new wells yet to be drilled, would have
to contend with the full might of the propaganda
armoury of State and ruling party.
However, the bearer of the bad news happened to
be one of the more senior, sober and normally cautious
cabinet colleagues of the Prime Minister - Dr Lenny
Saith, Minister of Energy.
Saith's
manner of disclosure, or confirmation to the
media, was certainly not done to undermine
his own government, and indeed, was tempered with
advice against a "panic'' reaction.
He
should be commended for placing in the public
domain vital information that the people ought
to know about their energy sector. It is, after
all, a sector quite integral to a heavily propagandised
official Vision 20/20 of T&T attaining developed
country status.
Disclosure
of the Ryder Scott audit sent Mr Manning virtually
screaming last weekend: "Not true
... our oil and gas (no one had mentioned oil)
are not about to run out in 12 years ...There has
been a serious misinterpretation of the audit...''
Mr
Manning even found it necessary to summon to
his defence, lest his critics forget, the fact
that he was "a geologist by profession''.
A relevant question here is to what extent, if
any, the geologist Prime Minister sought to assess
the Ryder Scott experts when they were doing
this latest audit during 2006. Did he as geologist
and head of government set about challenging
the findings and ask for a review?
Further, given the confidence, quite reassuring
as they are currently being offered, by State-owned
Petrotrin and, more significant bpTT, it would
be helpful to learn how their views were reflected
in the Ryder Scott audit.
Incidentally,
it may be useful to know whether there would
be an audit to also ascertain the availability
locally of skilled human resources among the State
and privately-owned oil companies that could facilitate
the pledges, so generously given by Mr Manning
to about eight African states to provide "technical
assistance" for their energy sector.
It is a magnanimous gesture by a relatively small
player in the global energy business. But there
is an obligation to provide some evidence of the
availability of such skills to African states,
among them powerful Nigeria, a founding member
of OPEC.
In the circumstances, it is relevant to also recall
Mr Manning's generous "announcement" to
the media in April last year of plans to supply,
on most favourable nation terms, Jamaica's liquefied
natural gas requirement, starting in 2009, for
its aluminium smelter project.
At the time the Jamaican Prime Minister, Portia
Simpson-Miller, was on an official visit.
Her
expressed happiness was to disappear shortly
after upon learning that the Manning administration
would not be able, as originally pledged, to meet
Jamaica's required LNG demands. She had to hurriedly
engage Venezuela as an alternative source, and
President Hugo Chavez made a positive response.
More about Chavez's regional "energy politics" later.
For now, with disclosure of the Ryder Scott audit,
there looms a far bigger challenge - making a reality
of the much publicised plans for a proposed multi-billion
trans-Caribbean undersea pipeline natural gas project.
Yet, if the optimism of Mr Manning is not really
misplaced, and finds some practical comfort in
assurances from local oil corporations, then perhaps
the dream of a trans-Caribbean natural gas project
may yet be realised. As they say, better to hope
than despair.
Rickey
Singh is
a columnist of The Trinidad Express.
Petroleumworld not necessarily share these
views.Petroleumworld
not necessarily share these views.
Editor's
Note: This article was first publish in Trinidad
Express, August 15, 2007 .
Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest
of our readers.
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08/18/07
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