Opinion
- Editorial- Commentary
Newsday:Missing
the point
It may well be that the Ryder Scott Report, which
concludes that Trinidad and Tobago has only 12
years of proven natural gas reserves left, forced
Prime Minister Patrick Manning to bring the Budget
date forward.
After all, the Government had been sitting on
the Report for a month before a media leak forced
them to engage citizens on the worrisome finding.
Finance Minister Conrad Enill admitted that the
Government would have to cut back on some of its
projects, but then Mr Manning said everything would
be proceeding as planned, and no more has been
heard from Mr Enill. Meanwhile, various energy
experts have weighed in, nearly all of them confident
that more gas will be found before the 12-year
deadline is upon us.
In all this, however, it is noteworthy that the
Government continues to conceal the Ryder Scott
Report, refusing to release what, at this juncture,
is surely the most important document for citizens
of TT. The best reason that could be given for
this is that the Report contains confidential information
about agreements between energy companies and the
Government. But this is unlikely and, even if it
were so, citizens still have a right to know what
kind of deals the Government is making with the
national patrimony.
The
other reason may be that the Ryder Scott Report
contains information that may be just as worrying
as the 12-year deadline, and the Government do
es not wish to have citizens criticising its management
of the country’s energy resources. Hence
an early Budget. This may or may not be the case
but, as long as the Government continues to insist
that the natural gas isn’t going to run out
but refuses to let the public see the Report, such
speculation will continue.
However,
a more important issue is being sidelined in
this discussion about whether our natural gas
reserves will be exhausted by 2019, and it is this – the
oil and gas will, inevitably, run out one day.
It may happen in 2050, according to optimistic
estimates, but the key question is whether we will
be ready when that day comes.
So
far, it appears not. Way back in 1975, then Energy
Minister Errol Mahabir said that Trinidad
and Tobago had reserves till 2014. But that prediction
was made in the spirit of saying don’t worry,
there is gas and oil for umpteen years to come.
However, 40 years is a short time in the life of
a nation. More importantly, it is also a very short
time to transform the economy of a nation.
To
be sure, some countries have managed to move
from underdeveloped to developed status within
one generation – most notably, Hong Kong,
Japan, Singapore, South Korea, and Malaysia. But
it is probably not coincidental that these are
all East Asian nations, with thousands of years
of Chinese-influenced cultural traits behind them.
The value placed on thrift, education, cooperation,
and trade allowed rapid economic transformation
of these countries, once the political decisions
were made.
But
a young nation like ours does not have these
cultural advantages and, allied to our leaders’ political
myopia, we certainly are not even close to achieving
any of the benchmarks in the 2020 Vision documents.
Given this lack, it will probably take at least
two generations to bring about real developmental
change. In other words, this is the time limit
we have to create a society which can compete economically
in the global market without the help of oil and
gas. We wonder if we will see any acknowledgement
of this reality in next Monday’s Budget presentation.
Newsday is
one of the most important newspaper in Trinidad
and Tobago.
Petroleumworld not necessarily share these
views.Petroleumworld
not necessarily share these views.
Editor's
Note: This article was first publish in Trinidad
and Tobago Newsday, Friday,
August 17 2007.
Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest
of our readers.
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08/18/07
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