Opinion
- Editorial- Commentary
Julian
Kenny:
A
small island delusional state
"I'm not sure what it really means, but it
said that you are all Nobel laureates." E-mail
message referred to by Dr John Agard speaking to
a newspaper, October 16, 2007
"
I also received a letter from the IPCC that authors
are considered laureates...If my fame can help
My fame brings attention to environmental issues
at home My fame can help bring our " Dr Roger
Pulwarty, T&T Review December 3, 2007.
"
I've had a lot of fun recently with my tiny (and
unofficial) slice of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize
awarded to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC). But, though I was one of thousands
of IPCC participants, I don't think I will add "0.0001
Nobel Laureate to my resume". John Christy,
Wall Street Journal, November 1, 2007.
There
you have it. Two persons on their admission "official" Nobel
laureates and one "unofficial" and I
wonder how many of the 3000-odd participants in
the IIPCC fall into these categories. But seriously
if you read Christy's commentary, and he is a climatologist,
you will see that although a member of the IPCC,
he continues to have some considerable reservations
about the IPCC's conclusions. Indeed, Christy suggests
that although the majority of the panel supports
the general conclusion, stated essentially as a
probability not certainty, many of the panel continue
to have grave doubts, given the reliance on modelling
rather than hard scientific data over time.
He
uses the word "cringe" twice, first
for the probable reaction of his colleagues on
the panel to his commentary, and later when he
hears the "overstated confidence from those
who describe the projected evolution of global
weather patterns over the next 100 years, especially
when I consider how difficult it is to accurately
predict that system's behavior over the next five
days".
We too might cringe at the predictions and realities
of the hurricane seasons over the past few years,
the last being the weakest season in five years
but predicted otherwise, and unusual only in the
generation of two category five storms.
But
for all the claims of recognition of outstanding
work and so on generated by the PR people locally
I wonder whether any have actually read the chapter
on "Island States" produced by no less
than four coordinating lead authors, three lead
authors, three contributing authors three editorial
reviewers giving a general overview followed by
a description of trends in what the island ecosystems
deliver in terms of biodiversity, fisheries, freshwater,
forests and culture, as well as the issues of population
growth, energy, invasive species and habitat degradation
and pollution, economics, short term natural events,
and, briefly on climate change and sea level rise.
A comment follows on the well-being of humanity
in island systems, all in 13 pages! It bears noting
that it concludes that there should not be any
serious adverse effects in terms of temperature
rise but that sea level rise will adversely affect
many small islands states, with which many will
agree. But in essence the chapter has nothing to
do with the core issue of the degree of probability
of the wider conclusion of the IPCC about climate
change and its cause, notwithstanding the reality
of global warming.
But as Christy and others have reminded us and
as most scientists accept there have been periods
of extreme global warming and global cooling long
before human society started burning fossil fuels.
The chapter is essentially a conventional review
of the literature as one might see in any university
library. The IPCC does not in fact conduct original
research and many active researchers outside the
IPCC system continue to have grave doubts as to
the causes of current changes.
But
I cringe. I cringe at the Vice Chancellor of
the University of the West Indies publicly equating
the names of Agard, Chen and Nurse, with previous "Nobel
Awardees - author Derek Walcott who received the
Nobel Prize for Literature and previous Vice Chancellor
Sir Arthur Lewis, who was the first man of sic
colour to win the Nobel prize for Economics, adding
to the University's history of previous Nobel Prize
awardees" (UWI Today Nov 18th).
I cringe also at Pro Vice Chancellor Tewarie's
reference to the university's commitment to the
establishment of a centre for biological diversity,
a proposal that I made to the Environmental Management
Authority some ten years ago and one that was
eventually adopted by Cabinet.
And
I cringe also at the talk that went on for years
emanating from the "claimant" of
the idea - without any action except that in the
end I was invited by the university to plan it
with some experienced biologists. I cringe also
at the fact that after spending one day a week
at UWI during 2005, helping with others to design
a management plan, a web site and a detailed work
programme for the centre, and, submitting an interim
report to the principal and dean there was not
even an acknowledgement! All really is vanity -
and striving after PR wind.
Julian
Kenny is
columnist of the Trinidad Express. Petroleumworld
not necessarily share these views.
Editor's
Note: This article was first publish
in Trinidad Express, Wednesday, December 19th 2007.
Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest
of our readers.
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12/ 23 /07
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