Opinion
- Editorial- Commentary
Mary King:
An economy at risk
Last week during a television interview it was suggested that by complaining about the deficiencies of T&T's economic model, I was a prophet of doom and gloom, on a very different road to the Government's grasping at straws to demonstrate that the good times will soon be back again.
My enduring theme is that we have to reconstruct our economy away from the traditional plantation economy, now suffering in the aftermath of the Dutch disease, towards a knowledge-based one. Consider now another resource rich country, Qatar.
The population of Qatar is 908,000, less than T&T's but with natural gas reserves of 910tcf as compared with ours of 17tcf-the third largest proven reserves in the world. Qatar's GDP per capita is US$30,220 (2007) (cf to T&T-US$16,000), it produces 1.1 million barrels of oil per day (cf. T&T's of 140,000) and produces 1.6 tcf/d natural gas (cf. T&T of 3.8bcf/d). Qatar is also the world's largest exporter of LNG, with some 1.6 tcf capacity per year, (T&T is about half of this). Surely then Qatar does not believe in the T&T's miracle of low reserves to production ratio of natural gas-Qatar's is 560 years while ours is 12.6!!.
With T&T's brand of leadership Qatar would be sitting pretty with its massive reserves and export capacity also awaiting the global turnaround. Listen to Sheikh Hamad bin Jahor Al-Thani: "Qatar is already looking beyond hydrocarbons. There is a larger vision behind it all. The Qatar Science and Technology Park (QTSP) is a catalyst in our society pointing the way forward for others." The QTSP is part of the Qatar Foundation which is really their national innovation system. Al-Thani continues: "Qatar is trying to improve its business and investment climate: the key is to invest in human capital and that is exactly what the Qatar Foundation is doing."
The Qatar Foundation has been 14 years in the development and realisation of Qatar's research vision to deliver what was promised to the people and Qatar's leaders, especially the next generation. Dr Hasan Al- Jaber says: "We recognise the need for innovation to transform Qatar into a knowledge-based economy." This is a country with 910 tcf of gas under its feet! Our minuscule and undirected attempt at UTT, EtecK at the Tamana Park together with Nedco and the VCIP pales into insignificance.
Now, listen to Paul Kagne, the President of Rwanda: "As long as nations are focused on receiving aid they will not work to improve their economies (in a quote from the book, Dead Aid). I have always thought that the discussion we should be having is when do we end aid and how best to end it." Our region lives it up in the good times and goes to the IMF when life is grim.
Kagne continues: "Do not get me wrong. We appreciate support from the outside but it should be support for what we intend to achieve ourselves... At the same time... nobody owes Rwandans anything. Why should anyone in Rwanda feel comfortable that taxpayers in other countries are contributing to our well being and development? We are attempting to increase our GDP by seven times over a generation... Entrepreneurship is the surest way for a nation to meet these goals... build a culture of innovation and create investment opportunities in product development, new distribution systems and innovative branding. Government activities should focus on supporting entrepreneurship-because it unlocks people's minds, fosters innovation and enables people to exercise their talents."
The T&T Government spent in the boom on non-productive investments which supported the on-shore production of non-tradable goods and services. Rwanda is a poor country emerging from internal conflict with few natural resources but has been able to cut its aid by half over the last decade and was able to grow at more than 11 per cent in 2008 even as the world entered a recession.
Kagne tells us: "... we know the road to prosperity is a long one. We will travel it with the help of a new school of development thinkers and entrepreneurs."
In contrast, our development thinkers appear stuck in the smokestack, polluting industrial age. Qatar is a rich country and has the resources to reconstruct its economy into a knowledge-based one. Rwanda recognises that aid is a two-edged sword and must be used to create entrepreneurship via innovation. Does this not say how we should use our T&T-driven Caricom funds? However in T&T our leaders make the traditional noises about economic diversification but continue to bet our future on gas and its industries. The T&T gas miracle seems reckless in the light of Qatar's vision and Rwanda's cold economic logic.
Mary King is a columnist of the Trinidad Express (maryking@tstt.net.tt). Petroleumworld does not necessarily share these views.
This commentary was originally published by Trinidad Express, Monday, June 8th 2009 . Petroleumworld reprint this article in the interest of ou
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News 06/17/09
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