The end game has now begun. It began when Mr Manning pulled the ace he has had in the hole all along and turned it face up. The ace bore the face of Mr Panday.
That Mr Manning has had that ace, waiting for the right moment to play it, should come as no surprise to anybody in the country who understands how the old regime works.
I have consistently maintained in this column that the two parties, the PNM and the UNC, led by Mr Manning and Mr Panday respectively, constitute the twin pillars of the old regime of government and politics in this country. Just two weeks ago I wrote the following, ’while these parties compete on an electoral basis, theirs is essentially a symbiotic relationship in that the presence of each reinforces and supports the continued existence of the other.’
Long before that, in the column published on September 14, I had put the following words into Mr Manning’s mouth, ’How can I rescue Basdeo? I am already keeping him out of jail. I was waiting on the constitutional debate to demand my pound of flesh but if I make the call before that debate then that debt is of no value.’
So the fact that Mr Manning invited Mr Panday to meet with him behind closed doors and that the two of them subsequently emerged to announce to the media and to the country that they had agreed to work together to bring about constitutional reform, should have not been a surprise to anyone who has been following the politics with a clear mind
What is, however, very intriguing is the timing of Mr Manning’s action. In politics timing is everything. And when a politician decides to make a move, particularly a move as hugely significant as the one Mr Manning has just made, that in itself gives us a key to assessing the thinking, the plans and the strategy that is behind the move.
In this case the fact that Mr Manning has chosen this moment in time to expose his ace in the hole suggests very strongly that he has decided that as unfavourable as his current political position is, the likelihood is that the longer he waits the worse it is going to get. He has therefore decided, in a move that is as desperate as it is bold, to try to alter the entire political environment to his advantage. And for that he needs Mr Panday.
In his reading of his present political situation he is absolutely right. In his moments of lucidity he must have recognised that within the country, support for his party is the lowest it has ever been. Even more significant is that within the party, support for him is the lowest it has ever been for any previous political leader.
In addition, not even the glare of his own radiance could blind him to the fact that the UNC is in a shambles and that Mr Panday’s political position is even more tenuous than his own. That is a situation which clearly threatens his own ability to rally support on the traditional basis of the threat of an ’Indian’ takeover.
Added to all of this is the fact that the economy is in real trouble. As was predicted by many economic commentators, both local and international, while the major economies of the world are showing signs of emerging from the recession, for economies like ours recovery is still a long way off and it is certain to get worse before it gets better. This is undoubtedly the key issue which has spurred Mr Manning to act now rather than later.
For the real problem which arises for Mr Manning from the slowdown in the economy is the precipitous drop in Government revenues. It is already very clear that, in the near future, neither the Government itself, nor any of the state agencies which act on behalf of the Government, are going to be able to meet most of the huge investment commitments that were entered upon so willy-nilly.
There is certain to be a drastic curtailment in the scope of state-sponsored enterprises one effect of which is going to be massive loss of jobs. Even more to the point the reduction in Government revenues threatens Mr Manning’s ability to sustain the current levels of spending on CEPEP and URP which he has made his most important political base.
So how does Mr Manning intend to ’alter the political environment to his advantage’? His first move has been to try to shore up his support within the party. This is why he embarked on his ’political education’ campaign. And this is why he is now trying to resuscitate the constituency groups and is urging his Members of Parliament and constituency representatives to get active in their constituencies.
But such action by itself is not going to go very far in the context of a situation in which the threat of displacement by the UNC is hardly a credible one. So he proposes to rescue Mr Panday. He will do so, as he did this week, by treating Mr Panday like a serious politician and according him ostentatious examples of respect and allowing him to win little victories like he did over the question of who invited who to talk.
But this is not going to be enough to rescue Mr Panday if at the same time Mr. Panday is embroiled in a nasty battle with the ’Ramjack’ faction for control of the UNC. So Mr Manning is going to suggest to Mr Panday that, in the interest of all concerned, it would be best if he postpones for the time being, the internal elections in the UNC.
And then Mr Manning is going to work very hard to get an agreement from Mr Panday on the constitutional reform issue. Once he has that agreement he is going to go to Parliament and, with the constitutional majority assured, change the constitution and declare himself Executive President.
And why, you ask, should Mr Panday agree to give Mr Manning all of that? Two reasons. In the first place he will do so if it can assure him that he can regain control of his party and live to fight another day. The second reason I have given already. If you missed it go back to paragraph three.
