ISSUES....
Inside, confidential, off the record

Why Iraq's partition won't work

 

-- Iran is already too powerful and Iraq too weak. This imbalance
destabilizes the region. Partition of Iraq will only accelerate the
imbalance.

-- Iran is taking Syria, Lebanon, the PA, and soon the West Bank. This is
ridiculous, dangerous (even to Iran) and has to stop.

-- Iran will be more tempted to intervene in Iraq under a partition
scenario. Iran has neither the wisdom, experience or capability to dominate
Iraq. This is not Syria-Lebanon, where all the main factions invited Syria
in, as did the neighboring states.

-- Iraq's neighbors do not want Iran in, and will send their own forces to
prevent this.

-- 80-90 percent of Iraqis do not want Iran in, and this includes most
Shia.

-- Unlike Yugoslavia, where the UN/NATO/EU limited the conflict, there
exist no constraints on an expanded Iraqi conflict.

-- Also, the Yugoslav fighting was contained because there were no nearby
conflicts. In the Middle East there are several nearby flashpoints -- i.e.
Kurds, Israelis-Palestinians, Hamas vs. PLO, Lebanon civil war, Jordan vs.
Hamas etc. These could merge into and extend Iraq's conflict.

-- Details like who controls Kirkuk, Mosul, and Baghdad cannot be
negotiated, only by fighting.

-- No government or UN is prepared to broker Iraq's partition, which will
thus be decided by fighting and by large scale ethnic cleansing.

-- Again, stop Iraq's partition. Attack the PUK-SCIRI deal against the
Sunnis and anti-Iran Shia!

 

Petroleumworld 05 12 06

ISSUES....

Is an independent journalist effort from Petroleumworld, on Inside, Confidential
and Off The Record Information, its views are not necessarily those of Petroleumworld

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