Declining
gas a major test for T&T
It
is inconceivable that the Government did not know
that the country's natural gas reserves position
was declining to critically low levels.
Ryder Scott will have built the gas reserves figures
from an audit of data provided by the same Government
and did not create the information, so they could
not have sprung a surprise on us.
The Ryder Scott report simply confirms what many
already knew and fortifies the view that the looming
crisis has two key dimensions:
- We are not able to add sufficient new reserves
to replace the commercial off-take plus the natural
reservoir declines. Unfortunately the prospects
for turning this around diminish significantly
with the failure of Ibis Deep and the ultra-deep
bid round and we may already be on the slippery
slope of declining gas delivery and plant shut-downs.
-
The reduced quantity of reserves is not enough
to sustain the Government's industrialisation plan,
with the result that we may not even be able to
pay our national debt including the "off-balance
sheet" build/own/operate projects that will
eventually have to be paid for.
The discussion of gas associated with oil deposits
which were not audited by Ryder Scott is a simple
red herring since oil production is also in decline
because the natural gas that drives the oil to
the surface is reducing in both quantity and pressure.
Equally worrying, Ryder Scott's independent revelation
will not inspire confidence among the prospective
investors and their international financiers, a
matter that adds to the need for careful management
of all aspects of the situation moving forward.
One thing is clear. If we continue to do the same
things we will continue to get the same results.
Finding more gas, scaling down projects without
causing an economic crash, and finding the formula
by which increased gas production can be monetised
profitably are essential elements of any future
governance plan for the country.
Nigel Darwent
Maraval
The
Trinidad Express
Monday, August 13th 2007
Copyright ©2007
Trinidad ExpressAll Rights Reserved.
