Energy
expert warns of crisis
By Asha Javeed
The Trinidad Guardian
Port
Spain
Petroleumworldtt.com
02 11 07
With
Government’s plan to go downstream into petro-
chemicals and aluminium, T&T’s current
gas reserves will not be enough to sustain it’s
drive to create an industrial state.
This
was the view of energy professional Reg Potter who
spoke at a meeting hosted by the Movement for National
Development at Chancellor hotel, St Ann’s,
yesterday.
Potter
said that it was unwise to expand industries that
were dependent on cheap gas, as reserves had not
increased significantly since 2001. He noted that
Government’s last deep water block offer was
not taken up which would push its expected reserves
even further.
He
said the low reserves was one of the possible explanations
for Prime Minister Patrick Manning’s decision
to relocate the Alcoa aluminium smelter from Chatham
to Otaheite—an offshore island which will
take several years to build, he said.
“One
can only use indirect reasoning. I have heard it
said that it will take years to dredge up and fill
the land. That pushes the projects even further
which would give the Government time to lease new
blocks in the hope of finding new gas,” he
said.
He
said any gas discovered in the extreme deep blocks
would be very expensive to develop which could push
prices up in the coming years.
“With
four billion cubic feet per day production, this
gives us a theoretical production life of 12.9 years.
This is known as the reserves-to-production ratio,
and is used as an indication of the health of our
reserves. Even though in reality the gas fields
do not produce then abruptly cut off, they instead
go into a more gradual decline which starts earlier,”
said Potter.
“The
point is that, as you can see, the reserves have
not increased significantly since 2001, since the
production rate has escalated faster than the oil
companies are able to discover new gas. In 2001,
we produced 1.6 bcf a day, then steadily increased
production to the 4.0 bcf a day at present,”
he explained.
Current
government policy on gas reserves management appears
ill-advised, he said.
Potter
observed that an AUM plant is being constructed,
the government is forging ahead with its plans to
build the Alutrint smelter, deals are being brokered
with steel companies and T&TEC needs to generate
more power to feed its street lighting project.
“These
present reserves support none of these projects,”
he said.
Potter
said with increasing production the Government will
pass the point where it can replace reserves to
give T&T 20 years of security.
“This
is not Government prudence. This is a very dangerous
game to play. Government-approved projects have
now gone way beyond any reasonable limit and the
nation is heading for an energy crisis.
“The
attempt to relate project approvals to new leases
for exploration or the percentage of marine area
still not leased is completely misguided. Exploration
potential is totally irrelevant to the approval
of projects and any Government that tries to relate
the two is desperately grasping at straws, due to
the fact that we are over-committed,” he said.
Potter
said the situation was very serious and no additional
projects should be approved. He said some consumers
will have to shut down in the years to come unless
more gas is proven.
“The
current Government’s industrialisation policy
is misguided in allowing new industries to consume
additional gas,” he said.
The
Trinidad Guardian
Thursday 18th January, 2007
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©2006 Trinidad Guardian. All Rights Reserved.
