Following
energy price fluctuations
Trinidad Express
Port
Spain
Petroleumworldtt.com
02 11 07
One month into the new year, some market experts
predict a surge in international oil and gas prices,
while others forecast less volatile rates over the
coming months.
In
reality, over the past five weeks energy prices
have remained somewhat stable with crude oil at
just above US$50 a barrel and natural gas slightly
higher than US$7/MMbtu. One influential international
market analyst has lowered the 2007 natural gas
composite spot forecast to $6.95/MMbtu from $7.60/MMbtu
while maintaining the 2008 forecast of $8/MMbtu,
and introducing a 2009 estimate of $8/MMbtu.
At
those levels, Trinidad and Tobago can be sure that
its oil and gas revenues will be huge and more than
sufficient to finance its ambitious development
projects.
Warmer-than-normal
weather in the United States and its resulting impact
on storage inventory levels along with signs that
members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting
Countries (OPEC) may not have been complying with
their announced production cuts all contributed
to keep oil prices at around US$50 a barrel over
the past few weeks.
But
all that could change in the coming weeks if the
weather in the US becomes colder. Additionally,
there appears to be a re-emergence of geopolitical
issues in Nigeria where rebel militia kidnapped
several expatriate workers sparking fears of a possible
disruption in supplies.
Also,
a new addition to the energy market mix came last
week when US President George Bush unveiled his
new energy plan aimed at making his country less
dependent on foreign energy supplies.
Given
the political unrest in many major world oil producing
countries and a growing thirst for energy in both
industrial and developing countries, energy prices
are likely to remain high on the short and medium-term.
However, historically energy prices have proven
to be quite volatile and therefore energy producers
and exporters such as Trinidad and Tobago would
be well advised to prepare for any sharp fluctuations
in prices.
Trinidad
Express
Wednesday, January 31st 2007
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