Following
energy price fluctuations
Trinidad Express
Port
Spain
Petroleumworldtt.com
02 11 07
One month into the new year, some market experts
predict a surge in international oil and gas prices,
while others forecast less volatile rates over the
coming months.
In reality, over the past five weeks
energy prices have remained somewhat stable with
crude oil at just above US$50 a barrel and natural
gas slightly higher than US$7/MMbtu. One influential
international market analyst has lowered the 2007
natural gas composite spot forecast to $6.95/MMbtu
from $7.60/MMbtu while maintaining the 2008 forecast
of $8/MMbtu, and introducing a 2009 estimate of
$8/MMbtu.
At those levels, Trinidad and Tobago
can be sure that its oil and gas revenues will be
huge and more than sufficient to finance its ambitious
development projects.
Warmer-than-normal weather in the
United States and its resulting impact on storage
inventory levels along with signs that members of
the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) may not have been complying with their announced
production cuts all contributed to keep oil prices
at around US$50 a barrel over the past few weeks.
But all that could change in the
coming weeks if the weather in the US becomes colder.
Additionally, there appears to be a re-emergence
of geopolitical issues in Nigeria where rebel militia
kidnapped several expatriate workers sparking fears
of a possible disruption in supplies.
Also, a new addition to the energy
market mix came last week when US President George
Bush unveiled his new energy plan aimed at making
his country less dependent on foreign energy supplies.
Given
the political unrest in many major world oil producing
countries and a growing thirst for energy in both
industrial and developing countries, energy prices
are likely to remain high on the short and medium-term.
However, historically energy prices have proven
to be quite volatile and therefore energy producers
and exporters such as Trinidad and Tobago would
be well advised to prepare for any sharp fluctuations
in prices.
Trinidad
Express
Wednesday, January 31st 2007
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