No
seat for Congress of the People
Port Spain
Petroleumworldtt.com
21 07 07
The
findings of the North American Caribbean Teachers
Association (NACTA) tracking opinion poll show
the opposition United National Congress Alliance
leading the ruling People's National Movement and
newly-formed Congress of the People in the 12 traditional
hard core opposition constituencies while the PNM
leads the divided opposition parties in five of
the marginal seats. The COP trails the UNC-A badly
in the 12 seats indicating that the COP will not
win a single seat in the November general elections.Â
The COP is also trailing the UNC-A in the five
marginal seats and affecting the UNC-A's chances
of winning any of the marginals. The combined support
of the UNC-A and COP outnumber the PNM suggesting
that had the two parties contested the elections
in an alliance, they would have defeated the PNM.
According to NACTA projections, right now, the
PNM is projecting to win 25 to 26 seats and UNCA
15 to 16 seats and COP no seats.
The latest tracking opinion survey was conducted
from October 8 through October 19 with 2,438 likely
voters in 17 selected constituencies to determine
voter support for the political parties. NACTA
is not affiliated with any political group and
has developed a reputation of accurately predicting
the outcome of elections since 1995 including the
1995 tie of 17-17 seats and the 2001 tie of 18-18
seats.
The
heartland or "safe" seats polled
are: Siparia, Naparima, Oropouche East, Oropouche
West, Chaguanas West, Couva North, Couva South,
Caroni East, St Augustine, Tabaquite, Princes Town
North, and Caroni Central. The marginals polled
were: San Juan/Barataria, St Joseph, Tunapuna,
Chaguanas East and Pointe-a-Pierre.
According to the findings of the survey in the
12 opposition heartland constituencies, the UNC
leads the PNM 58 per cent to 23 per cent with 13
per cent for COP. And in the five marginals, the
PNM leads the UNC 41 per cent to 37 per cent with
14 per cent for COP.
According to the findings of the survey, in the
three corridor marginals, the PNM has an average
of 11 per cent lead over the UNC-A and 26 per cent
lead over the COP. The PNM has an average three
per cent lead over the UNC in the Central marginals
and 27 per cent lead over the COP suggesting that
the COP has no chance of winning any of the five
marginal seats. But the combined opposition UNC-A/COP
leads the PNM by four per cent in the corridor
marginals and 11 per cent in the Central marginals
suggesting that had the two parties worked out
an electoral accommodation, they would have had
a chance in all five seats.
The
findings show the COP poses no serious challenge
to the UNC-A in the heartland but has pulled a
lot of support from its parent party. The findings
show that a deep split in the opposition camp between
COP and UNC-A in some constituencies will favour
the PNM to win the seats. For example, if there
is a close fight between the UNC-A and COP in Tabaquite,
St Augustine, Caroni Central and Couva North, the
PNM could win all those seats because the PNM's
base remains very solid in those constituencies
and its has picked up some support from the UNC's
base. The COP has not made any significant impact
in pulling support away from PNM. The UNC has attracted
a small amount of traditional PNM support in "depressed" communities
where some voters said the PNM has neglected them.
The findings show that the UNC-A poses the strongest
challenge to the PNM in all five marginal seats
but the chances of the UNC-A winning the three
corridor marginals is slim. However, the UNC-A
and PNM are neck-and-neck in the two Central marginals
suggesting the seats could go either way; COP has
no chance in either seat but is damaging the UNC-A's
prospect in both. If the undecided voters break
for the UNC-A or if more COP supporters were to
return to the UNC-A, the party could win the two
seats.
The
findings show that in Tunapuna, the PNM is leading
the UNC-A 43 per cent to 31 per cent with
13 per cent for COP. In St Joseph, the PNM
is leading the UNC-A 40 per cent to 27 per cent
with the COP at 18 per cent. And in San Juan/Barataria,
the PNM is leading the UNC-A 41 per cent to 33
per cent with 13 per cent for the COP. In
Chaguanas East, the PNM is ahead 40 per cent to
37 per cent for the UNC-A and 13 per cent for the
COP. And in Pointe-a-Pierre, the PNM is leading
41 per cent to 38 per cent for UNC-A and 14 per
cent for COP.
The findings show that about 14 per cent of the
voters are undecided in the three corridor marginals
and about nine per cent in the Central marginals.
The undecided voters hold the key to unlock the
outcome of the two Central marginals. Many of the
undecided voters are leaning towards the opposition
because they want change; they said they are fed
up with the ruling party but are confused as to
whether to vote for the UNC-A or the COP. Over
the last two weeks, the momentum has been on the
side of the UNC-A, with many COP supporters swinging
towards the UNC-A.
Overall,
the findings show that the PNM has held on to
most of its base, especially in the rural
heartland, and has picked up some traditional support
of the UNC-A. The UNC-A has also experienced some
slippage of its base to the COP, although some
have returned to the fold.
Story
from the Trinidad Express
Trinidad
Express
Wednesday, October 21st 2007
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