Ryan
poll: Put
needs of poor before PM's house
Port Spain
Petroleumworldtt.com
21 07 07
Results of a political opinion survey conducted
by Selwyn Ryan and Associates over the period
September 29 to October 6, 2007, indicate that
the People's
National Movement (PNM) and Congress of the People (COP) are locked in an electoral
battle that is extremely close, with the PNM being only marginally ahead of
the new challenger. Following is the conclusion of the poll.
The new official residence
The Prime Minister's new official residence has
drawn a great deal of criticism from the populace,
who allege that it satisfied his alleged imperial
vanity. It was said that other needs of the poor
should have been privileged. To what extent was
the palace project generally approved or disapproved
by the people?
The Indo-population was, in the main, hostile
and critical, while the Afro-Trinidadians were
more supportive. Forty-eight per cent of the latter
approved it, saying inter alia, that it was not
the PM's home but the official residence of the
Prime Minister of Trinidad and Tobago, whomever
he or she might be. Thirty-six per cent of the
latter group, however, disapproved.
The Indo population was more disapproving, generally.
Seventy-four per cent were of this disposition,
while 16 per cent approved. (See chart.)
Rapid rail transit
There has been much criticism of the PNM's policy
to construct a rapid rail system that straddles
the East-West and North-South Corridors. The UNC
has been critical of it, but the general majority
seem to favour it. Fifty-one per cent are in favour
of it, 21 per cent are opposed, and 24 per cent
do not as yet have an opinion. Afro-Trinidadians
and the mixed element are more supportive of the
project than are Indians by about 20 percentage
points.
Manning and the PNM constituency screening process
Much
controversy was generated by the decision of
the PNM Political Leader to use "mini-polls" as
tools to help decide which sitting MPs should be
allowed to represent the party in the general election,
or which should be asked to stand down. Mr Manning
was criticised for getting rid of old stalwarts
like Ministers Ken Valley, John Rahael, Dianne
Seukeran, Camille Robinson-Regis and Fitzgerald
Hinds.
Some welcomed the changes made, but felt it was
done too close to the election and disrupted and
demotivated the party. It was also said that there
were too many light-weights (32) in the cast.
When
asked whether the Political Leader had acted
wisely and democratically in his handling of
the
matter, or whether he was arbitrary and vindictive
in that he seemed to have fixed on those who had
challenged or opposed him on key issues, thirty
per cent opined that he had acted wisely and 21
per cent that he had done so "fairly" and "democratically" since
the party constitution gave him the final say.
Thirty-two per cent, however, felt that he had
acted unwisely and arbitrarily.
When we look closer at the data, we find that
a plurality of Afro-Trinidadians endorsed Manning's
decision. Forty-six per cent of them thought he
had acted wisely, fairly and democratically, compared
to 34 per cent who thought that he had acted arbitrarily
and unwisely.
Indo-Trinidadians were, however, less critical
of the PNM Political Leader. Sixty per cent of
them thought that he acted wisely and fairly in
getting rid of the incumbents. In sum, there was
much less public opposition to the decisions Manning
took than was assumed.
Political succession in the PNM and the UNC
Questions have long been asked as to who would
succeed Basdeo Panday and Patrick Manning when
the time came for them to move on or out. In the
case of Panday, the known aspirants are Mrs Kamla
Persad-Bissessar, Ramesh Lawrence Maharaj, Jack
Warner, Roodal Moonilal, Tim Gopeesingh and Kelvin
Ramnath. In the case of the PNM, the suspected
aspirants are Keith Rowley, Ken Valley, Colm Imbert
and John Rahael.
When respondents were asked whom they would prefer
to see fill the political shoes of the incumbents,
Kamla Persad-Bissessar led by wide margins in the
case of the UNC, and Keith Rowley in the case of
the PNM.
In the case of the PNM, Rowley had the endorsement
of 24 per cent of the general sample, 36 per cent
of the Afro-Trinidadians, and 30 per cent of the
mixed. The only other candidates who made significant
impressions were Christine Sahadeo, who was the
choice of 13 per cent of the Indo-Trinidadians
in the sample; and John Rahael, who was the choice
of seven per cent of the general sample and six
per cent of the Indo-Trinidadians.
In respect of the UNC, Kamla Persad-Bissessar
was the runaway favourite. She was endorsed by
a third of the entire sample, 46 per cent of the
Indos, and 22 per cent of the Afro-Trinidadians.
She was followed by Jack Warner, who was endorsed
by 13 per cent of the national sample, 21 per cent
of the Afros, but only five per cent of the Indos.
Ramesh Maharaj was the choice of a mere six per
cent of the national sample, six per cent of the
Indos, and four per cent of the Afros. In any struggle
to replace Panday as leader of the UNC, Kamla Persad-Bissessar
is the clear favourite-a position which would have
improved following her sterling performance at
Mid-Centre Mall during the meeting at which the
UNC's candidates for the 2007 election were launched.
Story
by Selwyn Ryan from the Trinidad Express
Trinidad
Express
Friday, October 19th 2007
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