PNM
has edge in close race
Port Spain
Petroleumworldtt.com
11 04 07
THE
FINDINGS of the final NACTA tracking poll released
yesterday before tomorrow’s General Election
has given the ruling People’s National Movement
(PNM) the edge over the United National Congress
Alliance (UNC A) but the last word from NACTA is
that “the outcome is too close to call because
eleven seats are up in the air and can go either
for the PNM or opposition UNC A depending on the
movement of voters on election day.”
According to the poll, the PNM is projected to
win 16 to 27 seats, the UNC A 14 to 22 or 24 seats
and the Congress of the People (COP), none.
However,
the COP is said to be putting up a stiff contest
against the PNM in a few traditional seats
held by the PNM in the Port-of-Spain environs but
is falling short because of the divided opposition.
NACTA said yesterday that the COP is also giving
the UNC A “a run for its money in its traditional
seats.” The COP, according to NACTA, also
has significant support in all the marginal seats
and it is this support, which will determine which
party-PNM, or UNC A- wins the marginals. If COP
supporters stick it out with COP, according to
NACTA, the PNM will pick up all the marginals.
However, yesterday NACTA said, “Trends from
recent polling show a movement of voters away from
the COP towards the UNC A.”
“So right now,” according to the poll, “the
battle is between the PNM and UNC A to win the
elections with undecided voters and the remaining
supporters of COP deciding whether it prefers PNM
or UNC A to be in government.”
According
to NACTA, several COP supporters have indicated
that they prefer the PNM to the UNC A
to form the government “because of their
bitter hatred for Basdeo Panday.”
Based
on the projections of the poll, the PNM is “safe” in most of its incumbent
seats although it faces a “ shake up” in
several of them such as Laventille East/Morvant,
Laventille West, Arouca Maloney, Port-of-Spain
North and South, St Ann’s East, Arima, San
Fernando East, La Brea, D’Abadie/O’Meara,
Tobago West, Point Fortin, La Horquetta, and the
three Diego Martin seats:
Central, North/East and West.
The UNC A, NACTA said, is in a fighting battle
in La Brea and Pt Fortin where the PNM is hovering
just around 50 percent of the support but the split
in the opposition has reduced the opposition prospect
of picking up the seat.
The
COP, according to NACTA, is in a strong battle
with the PNM in the Diego Martin and in the Port-of-Spain
and St Ann’s seats but the division in the
opposition has badly hurt the COP’s electoral
prospects in these seats. And according to NACTA,
PNM supporters are voting for “their party”,
not the candidates, to prevent the opposition from
winning the election. Many indicated, “Ah
born a PNM and ah go dead a PNM.”
Based
on the projections of the findings, the UNC A
is ahead in Siparia, Naparima, Oropouche
East and West, Chaguanas West, St Augustine, Couva
North and South, Princes Town North, Caroni East
and Central, Tabaquite, Fyzabad, and Cumuto/Manzanilla.
Voters complain that several of the incumbents
(from both the COP and UNC A) have not effectively
serviced their constituencies. But they are voting “party
line” and not for the candidate.
NACTA said though that in a few of these UNC seats,
such as Caroni Central, Couva North, the PNM could
pull off an upset victory because its base is holding
strong while the opposition is badly split. And
while Cumuto/ Manzanilla is placed in the UNC A
column, the PNM has a chance in this seat if COP
pulls significant UNC A support.
Based
on the poll’s projections, eleven
seats are showing that the support for the opposition
parties is greater than the support for the PNM
and some of them are closely contested. There are
several categories of these competitive seats.
The traditional marginals of San Fernando West,
Tunapuna, Barataria/San Juan and St Joseph are
strongly leaning toward the PNM because of the
deep split between the COP and UNC A but none of
them should be ruled out going to the opposition.
Mayaro is strongly leaning UNC A but if COP pulls
enough support from UNC A, PNM will sneak in.
In Lopinot/Bon Air West, Princes Town South/Tableland,
Chaguanas East, and Pointe-A-Pierre,
“It is a dead heat between PNM and UNC A
with one or the other party slightly ahead,” NACTA
said yesterday.
The margin between the UNC A and PNM is so small
in these seats that any shift from COP will decide
the fate of the seat. The UNC A, according to the
poll, also has an outside chance in Sangre Grande/Toco
which is turning out to be a competitive race with
PNM ahead, but a lot of voters undecided. The Tobago
East seat is also competitive between the PNM and
the TUF/DAC.
“So overall,” the poll concluded, “the
battle for control of the government is between
the PNM and UNC A with COP making the difference
in several seats and also having an outside chance
of picking up a few seats.
Both the PNM and UNC A have seen a dip in their
support from the last election. The PNM is projected
to win about 43 percent, UNC A 35 percent and COP
19 percent of the popular votes.
Support for the two opposition parties has been
shifting back and forth. As it stands, PNM has
the edge to win the elections based on effects
of incumbency and the split in the opposition.
Election day machinery will also decide the fate
of seats.
Because of the closeness of the contests in some
constituencies, the number of seats each party
wins will depend on voter movement in the remaining
days and the turnout. Lower turnout will benefit
the PNM while higher turnout will benefit the opposition.
Many opposition supporters say they may not vote
because of the split between the UNC A and COP;
this will benefit the PNM “to romp home with
a huge majority.”
PNM
campaign manager Conrad Enill, UNC political
leader Basdeo Panday and COP chairman Roy Augustus
yesterday told Sunday Newsday their respective
parties were continuing to do their work on the
ground and could not take the poll’s findings
as gospel.
Enill said the PNM’s own polls show that
the battle in the marginals is “tight” and
the ruling party is leaving nothing to chance with
only 24 hours left to election day. He said the
PNM is doing its work on the ground in all 41 constituencies
and its election machinery has been fully prepared
for some time now. Panday said he did not know
what the basis was for the latest NACTA poll because
the UNC A’s polls have placed it on course
to win 22 seats.
Augustus described the NACTA poll as a “con
game” and said the COP was not taking its
findings seriously.
“We have our work to do and we will do it,” he
said.
The findings of the poll were based on interviews
conducted up to yesterday with likely voters to
reflect the demographic composition of the population.
The results were analysed with a 95 percent confidence
level and the margin of error obtained is between
four and six percent. “NACTA,” the
release said, “is not affiliated with any
political party and has developed a reputation
of accurately predicting the outcome of all elections
(general, local and internal party polls) in the
country since 1995.”
Story
from Trinidad & Tobago's Newsday
Newsday
Sunday, November 4 2007
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