Vision 2020: On the road to failure?
PORT SPAIN
Trinidad &Tobago Newsday
Petroleumworldtt.com
17 10 08
“We are nowhere close to being a First World country, and the data show that,” said UWI economist Dr Trevor Farrell at a conference held in his honour in October.
However, according to a survey carried out by Market Opinion and Research International (MORI) in May 2007, many people disagree with Dr Farrell. “Half the public thinks that Vision 2020 will be achieved,” says the survey.
OWTU Education officer David Abdulah, who headed the Vision 2020 sub-committee on Labour, does not think most of the targets in the Draft National Strategic Plan have been achieved. “Look at what the strategies are that are being pursued, priority is being developed,” he told the Sunday Newsday. “In my view Government has not properly characterised its expenditure. Secondly, the overall management of the economy is to be desired. We are not investing not even the private sectors, we are continuing to fuel consumption.”
He added, “Currently, the large expenditures for security, health, education are there but the quality of it is not evident. They are spending on national security but crime is worse now than it was five years ago. We are not able to get the poverty rate down and they are spending a lot of money in the social sector, they are also spending a lot of money in health but there are still so many problems.”
The 2007 MORI survey found that, although more people have become aware of Vision 2020 in the past four years, “there has been a steady decline in confidence of its ultimate success.” Among those who felt the goal of developed-nation status would be reached by 2020, the signs of progress listed were housing developments; achievements in education; improved infrastructure; and “prestige” construction projects. An equal percentage of people heard positive and negative things about Vision 2020, but more Afro-TTs (34 percent) than Indo-TTs had heard good things (20 percent).
This last finding indicates the subjectivity of people's opinions – we hear what we want to hear. Political scientist Dr Kirk Meighoo, who was vice-chair of the sub-committee for governance, believes that the question on whether or not we are on schedule to achieve developed nation status cannot be answered. “We cannot achieve something that cannot be defined, nothing has been defined,” he said.
But the question of Vision 2020's progress can be answered empirically, since the core document – the Draft National Strategic Plan – contains specific benchmarks and timelines. This plan had three periods for achieving certain goals. The final deadline is, of course, 2020. The second is 2010, and the first was last year – 2007.
The Government has published an update on the DNSP, titled Transformation in Progress, 2007 Report, which, it said, “provides an account of the progress being made towards the achievement of specific targets identified in the Vision 2020 Operational Plan 2007-2010.”
This is misleading since, although the report has a section on implementation, it only says what has been done by the Government in various areas, omitting to mention any targets or any comparison between goals and achievements. Instead, the report uses phrases like “excellent progress has been made”.
Dr Ronald Ramkisson, who was vice-chair of the Finance sub-committee, does not think that we are on schedule. “I think that a number of things needed to be done by now as would have been indicated in the various industry reports and certain benchmarks that were identified on what we called the dashboard which showed what we wanted to achieve by a particular time. If you look at the last report, you would see that time is moving along very quickly and while some of them we are close too there are very important others that gives me cause for concern,” he said.
He believes the obstacles that are preventing us to be on schedule are very broad based and it relies on the involvement of the population.
“Unless the majority of the population is on board then we would not be able to achieve that vision and I do not think we have achieved that,” he explained.
He also thinks the key to achieving Vision 2020 is an improved public service. “We recognise we needed to have a reformed and motivated public service to be able to achieve the many goals that we set back then.
“I do not know that we have been able to achieve that. Indeed in my view the formation of special purpose companies is only a short run and a temporary solution, it is not a substitute and we need to get that right,” he said.
Does a comparison between the DNSP targets and the actual implementation confirm or refute the view that TT will be a developed nation by 2020? The report's “Overview of Implementation Progress” records programmes and projects in various sectors.
HEALTH
In health-care, for example, it says, “Significant advances were made in the health-care delivery system. The waiting list for surgeries at public health institutions was reduced; the Organ Transplant Programme was expanded; and heart surgery, renal dialysis treatment and drugs for chronic diseases were made more affordable. In addition, health institutions were upgraded and the number of health-care professionals serving the population was increased.”
But the DNSP has only one target out of six for 2007 – to raise the rating of disparity in health care (between well-off and poor people) from two out of seven (where one is a large difference in quality and seven a small difference). The target was to lift Trinidad and Tobago from the third rank among countries world-wide to the second rank by last year. This has not been achieved, and TT's position remains the same despite the improvements in health-care listed.
This may be because of our continued high infant and maternal mortality rates, as well as the difference in health-care between public and private hospitals.
A 2008 MORI survey found that almost half the population was dissatisfied with the service at public hospitals, but 57 percent felt that there would be improvement.
HOUSING
The DNSP had no data on the basics of housing, such as house prices relative to annual incomes, home ownership, or the national rate of persons per room. The report boasts that “Housing was made more affordable and accessible to citizens in 2007.
Mortgage interest rates on State-provided housing were reduced to two per cent and making down payments for mortgages was eliminated. In addition, some 11,200 houses were distributed to beneficiaries between 2003 and 2007.” Most of the housing goals listed in the DNSP, however, had to do with bureaucratic and legal improvements, such as improvement of data collection, review of the Mortgage Bill 2000, and delegation of community development to local government bodies. None of these issues is mentioned in the 2007 report.
CRIME
“The total number of gang related homicides also fell by 77.9 percent when compared with the same period in 2005-2006,” says the Report, which also claims that “Some progress was achieved in improving the safety and security of citizens” through reductions in kidnapping, wounding, and robbery. All these crimes have since increased.
The report also says that “Audio Digital Court Recording (ADCR) Systems were installed in 60 percent of the courtrooms in the country. This has, in some instances, reduced the time taken to conduct a trial from one month to one day. In addition, approximately 95 percent of the transcripts required for appeals were provided on time.” However, TT was supposed to be at First World ranking in efficiency of legal framework by 2007. This has not been achieved.
EDUCATION
The reports says, “In 2002, 16 percent of the SEA students scored less than 30 percent of the total marks, compared with 13.5 percent of the students in 2007.
At the tertiary level, the data reflect continuous growth in the opportunities for higher education, particularly as a result of the introduction of the University of Trinidad and Tobago (UTT), the provision of free undergraduate tertiary education and GATE-approved programmes. Student enrolment increased from 10,233 in 2001/2001 to 72,6499 in 2006/2007.” Specific indicators were to place TT in the second or third-highest tier of countries by last year. These included quality of public schools (achieved in terms of plant), capacity for innovation (not), reduction of brain drain (not), tertiary enrolment (achieved, but with no data on dropout rates or percentages of persons with degrees), and quality of education system (not achieved).
ECONOMY
“Excellent progress was made in terms of maintaining macroeconomic stability and sustaining the growth momentum,” said the Report. No mention was made of the increase in oil and gas prices which has driven growth, and, while containment of inflation was listed, no target figure was given. The DNSP's target was the second tier of countries, but the double-digit inflation of October 2006 and thereafter means this goal was not achieved.
CONCLUSION
The table attached lists the main goals in four key areas which were supposed to be achieved by 2007 or before.
This sample indicates that, contrary to Government claims, the overall success rate of Vision 2020 thus far is a dismal 11 percent. It therefore seems that Dr Farrell's view, and the half of the populace which is skeptical about Vision 2020, is the correct opinion.
Story by
Kevin Baldeosingh and Darcel Choy
from Trinidad & Tobago Newsday
Trinidad
& Tobagp Newsday
Sunday, November 16 2008
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