All eyes on Manning
PORT SPAIN
Trinidad & Tobago Guardian
Petroleumworldtt.com
06 22 09
As Prime Minister Patrick Manning convenes a convention of the People's National Movement today at Chaguaramas, political analysts are predicting victory at the polls for the ruling party in the upcoming local government elections, should the United National Congress (UNC) remain divided.
Today, all eyes—in the Opposition and PNM—are on Manning; whether he will announce the long-awaited election date, or postpone it for a fourth time. The population also will be looking to the Prime Minister for answers on raging crime in the country, with the latest atrocity being Wednesday's discovery of ten-year-old Tecia Henry's bloated body, four days after she went missing. She was strangled and her body stuffed in a hole under a house.
While National Security Minister Martin Joseph said he was saddened by the child's murder, Manning has not yet made any public statement. Whether he announces the date for local government polls or not, what is certain is that Manning will seek to enlighten party members about the Local Government reform process as he prepares them for the new governance structure that will be in place. Also on the agenda is constitutional reform, international governance and regional integration and governance.
Challenging Manning
Interviewed on the possible outcome of the upcoming elections, which have been postponed for the last three consecutive years to facilitate the reform process, political analyst Derek Ramsamooj said that the PNM would no doubt make inroads into areas dominated by the UNC. Senior lecturer in the Department of Behavioural Sciences at UWI, Ann Marie Bissessar, meanwhile, believes that while the PNM has a strong lead, especially with the shifts of boundaries in three corporations, it would not gain ground in Chaguanas, since the UNC base was strong in that corporation. Though she felt it was a bit too early to give an insight into the outcome of the election, she was confident of victory by the ruling party. “Definitely the PNM will win,” she added.
Senior lecturer in government at UWI, Dr Bishnu Ragoonath, on the other hand, insisted that if an accommodation was not formed with the Opposition, Manning would “laugh all the way” when the votes are counted at the polling stations. Political analyst, Dr Selwyn Ryan, declined to comment about politics, insisting that the local government reform was a big farce. “The Chaguanas Borough would be one of the PNM's key areas of attack, and I see them making inroads in this corporation,” Ramsamooj said on Wednesday. “In a divided opposition there is a high probability that Chaguanas, in the first time of its political history, will fall to the PNM.” The corporation, headed by Mayor Surujrattan Rambachan, comprises eight electoral districts, five of which are under UNC rule, with the PNM managing three.
If the PNM nets five of the electoral seats in the elections, they rule the roost in Central. There are 14 municipal corporations in Trinidad. “What is at risk now are the UNC corporations...not the PNM. There is nothing called a UNC stronghold area again. It is easier for the PNM to keep their existing seats than for the UNC,” said Ramsamooj. With the pulling and tugging in the UNC, Ramsamooj contended, the PNM would use this to its advantage and try to wrest other municipal corporations that the UNC have been controlling. Ramsamooj said the biggest threat to the PNM would be the formation of a new party, with a leader who had the confidence and trust of the public, or a unity platform among the opposition parties.
“Challenging Mr Manning would be extremely difficult. The UNC has lost sight and focus on pertinent issues. What is important to them is political survival and not championing the cause of the people.” Ramsamooj said the PNM also was likely to capture seats in two corporations: Mayaro/Rio Claro and Princes Town Regional. He noted that the war between Winston “Gypsy” Peters—who won the Ortoire/Mayaro seat for the UNC in the 2007 general election—and Basdeo Panday, over leadership of the party, could have some negative fallout. “The UNC could lose out in Mayaro/Rio Claro, simply because of the fact that the national politics can have a negative impact between Gypsy and Panday, who have been at each other's throats. “This can create a disillusion factor among the electorate.” Mayaro/Rio Claro Corporation is split down the middle, with UNC and PNM each managing four seats.
Another corporation Ramsamooj said the UNC had to watch was Princes Town, which is where Minister of Local Government, Hazel Manning, has some roots. The UNC has six councillors in the Princes Town Corporation, with two aldermen, while the PNM and COP have one seat each. Ramsamooj said he expected the UNC to capitalise on votes with the construction of the Alutrint aluminium smelter, which is being built in the PNM-controlled Point Fortin Borough, but this did not happen. The analyst said while the UNC had a cult following of Panday, the COP was yet to evolve into a political party. The Ramjack duo, Ramsamooj said, was destined to become a political footnote of history. “We must understand if the country wants to move forward, then the Opposition must put aside their differences. Mr Panday views the UNC as his own political property.”
Political analyst Ragoonath insisted that if the opposition parties continued to remain in disarray and disjointed, the PNM stood to benefit at the polls. “If an accommodation is formed between the UNC and COP, they can throw the PNM on the back foot,” said Ragoonath. Once there was no accommodation, Ragoonath said, the PNM would “laugh all the way to the polling stations.” Ragoonath noted, however, for the PNM to make inroads into UNC-controlled corporations,“they would have a lot of work to do...This is where the challenge lies.” If there was a three-way fight involving the UNC, PNM and COP, there was a likelihood that the votes could be split, resulting in the PNM making inroads.
However, if the UNC and COP were to contest as one party, “I don't see the opposition losing any of its seats to the PNM.” Should the COP contest alone, Ragoonath said they could give the PNM a good run for its money in the Diego Martin Regional Corporation, similar to what happened in the 2007 general election. Questioned on whether the warring faction in the UNC could have a negative impact on the party, Ragoonath said he did not see this happening. “Regardless of the in-fighting, Mr Panday has his supporters.”
Small gain for COP
Bissessar, meanwhile, said while a PNM victory was certain, it would still be difficult to make inroads in Central. “I think Mayor Rambachan has sustained his efforts in the area. I really don't see this corporation going into the hands of the PNM.” Should the PNM emerge victorious in Chaguanas, Bissessar said, it would be based on migration patterns, the employment rate and housing shifts. Bissessar said before an accommodation between political parties took place, ground rules must be laid out and a leader selected, which the UNC and COP were far from discussing.
“Personally, I think Winston Dookeran has a lot of pluses going for him, but an accommodation means just that...an accommodation. “You think Mr Dookeran would like to follow again? No way!” Bissessar said COP had two factors going against them—funding and not having a voice in Parliament. If COP fights the election alone, Bissessar said, they had a good chance of capturing one or two seats, “but nothing to talk about.”
Ryan: it's a farce
Ryan said he was disgusted with this whole political climate. “It's meaningless...absolutely.” “That Local Government reform thing is a bit of a farce, and I have deliberately decided not to waste my time. I am completely switched off.”
Local elections
Prime Minister Patrick Manning hinted in Parliament, last Friday, that Local Government elections would be held either before or after July 14. The elections are constitutionally due by July 12, and under the Representation of the People's Act, the latest date it can be announced is October 12. Manning also said the White Paper on Local Government Reform, accompanied by legislation, would be tabled in Parliament before July 14.
Local Government Minister Hazel Manning, who began debate, last Friday, in Parliament on the draft of the Elections and Boundaries Commission (EBC), which paves the way for local government elections that the House must approve, also stated that the EBC recommended that three electoral districts in three electoral areas—Diego Martin, San Juan/Laventille and Tunapuna /Piarco—be increased.
Story by RShaliza Hassanali from Trinidad & Tobago Guardian
Trinidad & Tobago Guardian
21 Jun 2009
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